Pukalani, Hawaii 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

812
FXHW60 PHFO 180140
AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
340 PM HST Fri Jan 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler air is filtering into the region this evening. Dry and
stable weather will continue into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A weak and diffuse cold front over Maui County is bringing a brief
round of clouds and showers there as it continues its trek
southeastward. The front is expected to clear the Big Island early
Saturday morning. A cooler and strongly stable airmass is building
into the forecast area in its wake. Stratus is seen developing along
the northern slopes of Kauai where dewpoints have fallen by a couple
of degrees so far. Expect cooler weather with dewpoints in the 50s
to around 60 by Saturday morning. Stable trades continue through mid-
week before weakening once more in advance of the next and much
stronger mid-latitude wave that will dig toward the islands during
the middle of next week. Extended model consensus is excellent that
this energy will usher another cold front through the area late next
week. However, models are struggling greatly with the evolution of
the upper wave with solutions ranging from benign progressive
frontal passage to various kona low scenarios. Thursday onward
represents a period of interest going forward.

&&

.AVIATION...

A shallow cold front will continue to break apart as it moves
through the eastern half of the island chain into the overnight
period. Brief MVFR conditions are possible in showers ahead of
and with the front. Northerly winds will build in from west to
east behind the front, with cooler and drier conditions expected
for Saturday. No AIRMETs are currently in effect nor expected
through Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...

The tail end of a cold front is currently passing through Maui this
afternoon and will move across the Big Island tonight then
dissipate on Saturday. The threat for thunderstorms is now just
east of our far eastern offshore waters and will continue to move
further away from our area. High pressure building in behind the
front this weekend will bring the return of locally strong trade
winds. Fresh to locally strong trade winds will likely persist
through Monday then decrease through Tuesday.

An extra-large, long period west-northwest to northwest (300-320
degree) swell will peak this afternoon and evening. Buoy 51101
northwest of Kauai showed a steady decline during the day today,
which should translate to declining surf later tonight into
Saturday. This swell should drop to borderline warning levels by
mid day Saturday. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for the
north and west- facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai,
along with north facing shores of Maui through Saturday afternoon.
Due to the westerly component of this swell, a High Surf Warning
is also in effect for the west facing shores of the Big Island
through Saturday. Surf should peak tonight into early Saturday
morning for west facing shores of the Big Island. A Small Craft
Advisory is also in effect due to the extra-large west-northwest
to northwest swell. The next northwest swell is scheduled to
arrive next Tuesday into Wednesday and could bring advisory level
surf along north and west facing shores.

An out-of-season south swell continues to fill in this afternoon
and is producing surf near the summer average. This swell is
expected to peak tonight then gradually decline this weekend.
Surf should return to background levels (nearly flat) by the
middle of next week.

East-facing shore surf will remain small the next couple of days
as a result of disrupted trades downstream of the front. East
shore surf becomes more rough Sunday and Monday in response to
strengthening northeasterlies. Select east surf spots may
experience some wrap from the passing northwest swells.&&

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Moderate to locally breezy N to NE winds will funnel drier air
into the area for the weekend. The probability for critical fire
weather conditions to develop is low, mainly owing to winds
failing to reach the threshold. The greatest probability for Red
Flag conditions to develop is Sunday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Saturday for Niihau-Kauai
Leeward-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kona-
Kohala-Kauai North-Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-
Maui Central Valley North-Windward Haleakala-Big Island South.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian
waters-


&&

$$


DISCUSSION...JVC
AVIATION...TS
MARINE...Kino
FIRE WEATHER...JVC